Bitcoin (BTC) market volatility has dropped to an all-time low mirroring the market conditions in 2018. Several market experts have anticipated that a rally has previously followed after such low volatility. Is BTC signaling a bull run?
Will Clemente, co-founder at Reflexivity Research, took to Twitter to reveal that the Bitcoin Volatility index (BVOL) has tapped an all-time low on Christmas specifying the last time volatility tanked to near current levels was in late 2018. According to CoinMarketCap, the largest cryptocurrency, is up 0.14% in the last 24 hours, currently trading at $16,860. Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a slight uptick over the past seven days gaining 0.70%. The flagship token has traded between $15,700 and a little over $18,000 for the past six weeks. It seems BVOL tanked for the second time this year with the index dopping to 25 in October.
Bitcoin’s volatility is at an all-time low pic.twitter.com/sGOIC7cM6e
— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) December 25, 2022
Is BTC Gearing Up for a Price Boom?
Every time $BVOL closed below 25, an explosive bitcoin move soon followed. Twice up, once down (Nov 2018). pic.twitter.com/mao9F44K22
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) October 9, 2022
Following the drop several market analysts have pointed out that such movements usually precede a massive price pump. On October 9, prominent economist, Alex Kruger, tweeted that every time volatility closed below 25, it was followed by a bullish rally. He wrote,
“Every time BVOL closed below 25, an explosive bitcoin move soon followed. Twice up, once down (Nov 2018).”
Previously, Bitcoin evangelist, Michael van de Poppe, had chimed in echoing positive tune claiming the drop in BVOL preceded the crash to $3k in 2018, the rally to $14k in 2019, and the start of the 2021 bull run. If these predictions hold true, it seems Bitcoin (BTC) is on the brink of yet another rally with the index dropping to record lows. In the past few days, the asset has faced resistance on both sides, indicating a lack of consensus among market participants.
In a statement, Edul Patel, CEO at Murudex said if Bitcoin (BTC) can close above the $16,900 level, it may resume its previous upward trend.
A very big move is on the horizon for #Bitcoin, as $BVOL drops sub 25.
Historically, that’s a guaranteed recipe for massive volatility.
1; crash to $3K in 2018.
2; break above $4K to $14K in 2019.
3; break above $10K in 2020 (kickstart bull 2021).
C/ @krugermacro pic.twitter.com/QvKXT9Ql28
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 10, 2022
Bitcoin Hash Rate Drops Due to Extreme Weather
Over 30% of the #Bitcoin hashrate has gone offline due to extreme weather in Texas and yet the global #Bitcoin network continues to work perfectly.
Now imagine if Amazon or Google tried turning off 1/3rd of their data centers. pic.twitter.com/G49iqBZXDL
— Dennis Porter (@Dennis_Porter_) December 25, 2022
It is not just BVOL but Bitcoin network’s hash rate has also tumbled almost 16% from the all-time high in early November. It looks like the recent fall is due to miners in Texas powering down due to severe weather conditions and the demand for energy grids. Dennis Porter, co-founder at SatoshiActFund, said,
“Over 30% of the Bitcoin hashrate has gone offline due to extreme weather in Texas and yet the global Bitcoin network continues to work perfectly.”